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“Prediction markets represent a meaningful second channel for NFL wagering but still small on a relative scale, reflecting a new sector with less of an installed base,” observes EKG.

It’s widely believed that all-or-nothing exchanges are carving out significant niches in states, such as California and Texas, where sports betting is prohibited, but there’s also emerging consensus that the prediction market threat to sportsbooks is easing.

A major advantage for traditional sportsbook operators is their ability to aggressively fund customer acquisition and retention bonuses. As EKG points out, prediction markets have “less ability to be generous with bonuses” because users trade against one another rather than against the house.

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Yashin points particularly to comparisons with crash games, whose similarly short rounds make them a natural benchmark. A Swipe Games round lasts around eight to 10 seconds, but player behaviour can be markedly different.

Across markets in Latin America, Europe and Asia, Yashin says the average stakes for swipe games display a pattern closer to sports betting than crash gaming. In one market, the average Swipe Games bet was 20 times higher than the average crash-game bet with the same operator.

Retention has provided another encouraging signal. Depending on the market, Yashin says day-one, day-seven and day-30 retention can range from around the crash-game benchmark to between five and 10 times higher. The number of rounds played during a session can also be significantly greater.

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