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The DSWV said the findings should prompt a thorough reassessment of official black market size estimates in Germany.
The DOCV, another trade body representing licensed online casino operators in Germany, also expressed support for the prosecutorial efforts. However, it emphasised that the raid exposed regulatory gaps which had allowed organised crime to flourish.
Kevin O’Neal, a DOCV board member, argued the scale of the investigation calls the GGL’s broader black market estimates into question. He cited the regulator’s 2025 activity report, which put the 2024 share at 23% (€547 million in gross gaming revenue), against Nielsen data suggesting a share of around 56%.
What is Lucky Spin Mela?
Curwen points to Raptor 2 as an example of what this means in practice. The game went through no fewer than 17 versions during its first couple of weeks of development.
“Speed of iteration is probably the biggest difference,” he says. “Traditionally, every significant change can create another development cycle involving several different teams. With Game in a Box, the creator can iterate much closer to real time.”
Crucially, Curwen sees those efficiencies as a means to an end rather than the primary objective.
What is Lucky Spin Mela?
The investment banking and capital markets firm Jefferies said in a September report that sports had become prediction markets’ “most important liquidity driver”, with combo and parlay-style contracts accounting for an increasing share of activity. But the analysts cautioned that prediction markets are scale businesses with relatively low revenue yields, leaving their economics dependent on sustained liquidity, engagement and trading activity.
James Monk, founder of sports data and streaming provider Catalist Sports, has witnessed that dependence directly. Catalist supplies ITF tennis data to Kalshi and Polymarket and has an exclusive US sports-streaming agreement with Kalshi.
The company must also provide data to the firms making markets on those events.
